If Russia wins
A Hypothetical Near-Future Scenario
In the early hours of 27 March 2028, Russian army units annex the Estonian city of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa, a strategic foothold for military operations in the Baltic Sea. The attack on the Baltics by Moscow's neo-imperialists has begun. It soon becomes clear that, following the defeat and division of Ukraine, Europe has failed to modernise its arsenal, bolster its troop numbers, and, due to populist demagoguery, has even compromised the negotiating skills of its leaders. Nevertheless, action must be taken within a matter of hours. Does Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty apply? How will NATO respond to the plea from its allies in Tallinn, and what will be the reaction of a Trump-led America with new diplomatic priorities? Will Europe risk a nuclear war with Russia under President Obmanchikov?
We have grown accustomed to everything turning out well in the end. But what if it doesn't? What if Russia wins and, in the supposed interest of its compatriots, seizes another prize on foreign soil? Renowned political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala presents a hypothetical, yet bleak, scenario of the near future, summarising what is at stake as a result of the changed international political climate. If the proven tactic of deterring our arch-enemy is no longer sufficient, let us at least heed similarly unsettling visions – written primarily to compel us to act in time.
Carlo Masala
Carlo Masala (born 1968), of Austrian-Italian descent, was born and educated in Cologne. He later pursued his interest in political science, German studies, and Romance studies at the University of Bonn. From 2004, he worked as a security advisor for the NATO delegation in Rome. He now lives in Leipzig and is a professor of political science at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the Bundeswehr University Munich. The author of *Weltunordnung* (World Disorder, 2016) and *Bedingt abwehrbereit* (Conditionally Ready to Defend, 2023), in which he analyses Europe's weaknesses on the cusp of two eras, he is also a sought-after commentator. His bestseller *Wenn Russland gewinnt* (If Russia Wins, 2025) has already gone through eight editions in Germany in a single year.
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